Big Game Saturday

What’s up, people? We’ve got more top-25 matchups today, with none bigger than the newest SEC matchup between #1 Texas and #5 Georgia. We’ve got some other games to look at and one that might have us on upset alert.

Let’s dig in.

#1 Texas vs. #5 Georgia

📺️ 7:30 pm on ABC

💰️ Texas is entering this game as 4.5 point favorite, with the points total at 57.5

⛳️ Texas alum and #1 golfer in the world, and our favorite criminal of the 2024, SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, is the guest picker college gameday on ESPN today. He should have a good time with Pat McAfee.

👀 This is the third top 5 game in the last four weeks, and it involves Georgia once again. Georgia can maybe get into the 12-team playoff with 2 losses, but they still have tough games remaining after this weekend, so a loss really isn’t something the Bulldogs can truly afford to have. On the other side, The Longhorns have been one of the best programs in college football the last few years and are rolling over their opponents this year. Sure, Texas pounded Michigan and Oklahoma, but both those squads aren’t having their best year. The Longhorns have one of the best passing games in the nation, and while Georgia has a great defense once again, we saw what Texas did to a talented Michigan defense. On the flip side, Texas’ defense has been a beast. They haven’t allowed more than 13 points to any team the entire season. Georgia has one of the best second-half offenses in the country, but to have success against Texas, they’ll need to start fast. I think Texas can win this by a touchdown but not taking Georiga when they are getting 4.5 points as an underdog seems weird so I think I have to play reverse psychology with myself and take Georgia.

#7 Alabama @ #11 Tennessee

📺️ Gametime is 3:30 pm on ABC

💰️ Bama is favored by 3 points on the road and the points total is 57.5

👀 Which team is going to show up today? That’s a legitimate question for both squads. Will Bama arrive in Knoxville with the team stomped on Georgia in the 1st half, or will they show up with the team that almost lost a massive to Georgia in the 2nd half, lost to Vandy, and just narrowly escaped South Carolina? Let’s look at Tennessee. They put up huge numbers against way lesser opponents and then got their first loss two weeks ago to a decent Arkansas team. Tennessee had to scoot by Florida last week in OT and we’ve all seen that Florida is garbage. Tennessee will be without their best defender as their LB Kennan Pili is out with an ACL injury.

The key to success for either team is to win the possession game. Tennessee’s passing game has dried up the last few weeks and if you keep giving the ball to Nico Iamaleava he will eventually hit some big throws for Tennessee. Same goes for Bama’s Jalen Milroe, the more he has the ball, the more chances he’ll have to make explosive plays with his feet. Here’s another note about Bama’s defense. Bama plays a lot of man and will use a cover 1 look a lot. Iamaleava has a 27% success rate against these types of coverages so you can expect to see it a lot today.

All this to say that I think Bama can get the job done by 3 points today. I’m not sure how I feel about the 57.5 points total but I’ve seen some Tennessee under for 27.5 points and I think there is some value there.

#24 Michigan @ #22 Illinois

📺️ Gametime is 3:30 pm on CBS

💰️ Michigan is favored by 4.5 points in this one and the points total is 44.5

👀We’re going to keep the analysis short on this one. The Michigan offense has been garbage lately. Absolute trash. BUT, they’re making a change for good. Jack Tuttle is getting the full start today, and that means that Michigan can maybe open up the passing game again. Jack Tuttle is in his 7th season of college football but he has experience with Michigan’s offense, so while they don’t need to take the top off the defense, hopefully it will open things up for the run game some Donovan Edwards can finally get going.

Illinois's offense has been below average in the run game, and it has relied on passing the ball. The Fighting Illini rank 25th in pass success and will look to put pressure on the Michigan secondary. I think this will come down to time of possession, and if Michigan can efficiently run the football, it will reduce Luke Altmyer’s opportunities to launch the ball deep.

I think Michigan finds their way in this game and wins by 6 points. As long as the total points stay under 45, I’ll take the over too.

Upset Watch: #8 LSU @ Arkansas

📺️ Gametime is 7 pm on ESPN

💰️ LSU is favored by 2.5 points here, and the total points are at 57.

👀 Why is this on our upset watch? LSU just had a huge emotional win against Ole Miss where they edged them out in OT. This slid LSU back into the top 10. Arkansas showed us that they are a pretty decent football team after handing Tennessee their first loss of the season. LSU has been very reliant on their passing game and it’s been on fire lately. Arkansas is coming off a bye so they have had plenty of time to prepare for the passing attack. Arkansas has the edge when it comes to running the ball and run defense. While the passing game could still override the run defense, Arkansas’s passing defense still ranks in the top 50 of the nation, so it’s not like they’re full of liabilities on the field. Maybe Brian Kelly has the Tigers ready to go and their heads on straight this week. I’m just saying, if there was a week for LSU to fall, it would be this one. This is a bet where I might throw just 1 unit on it to have some fun.

That’s a lot of info for today. Have fun, enjoy the games, and let’s see if we have any other crazy upsets today.

Cheers!

-The DB