Championship Sunday

📍Alleigant Stadium, Las Vegas

📆 February 11, 2024

⏰ 6:30 pm ET

👆️This place, this date, and this time… that’s the goal for a football player.

Every NFL player dreams of playing in the Super Bowl, and this year, it’s happening in Las Vegas. We're just two weeks away, and to get there, you’ve got to get through this weekend.

It’s one of the best weekends in the NFL. Conference Championship Sunday.

We’ve got the AFC Championship at 3 pm ET and the NFC Championship directly after. Get your popcorn ready. We’re going to have a day.

Let’s do a preview and get you back on the couch for the games.

AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

📺️ Gametime is 3 pm ET on CBS

💰️ The Ravens are favored by 4.5 points, and the O/U is 44.5 points.

👀Did you know this is the first playoff meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson? They’ve met in the regular season before, and Mahomes is 3-1 against Lamar, but both of these teams are not like they used to be. The Ravens still have a monster defense that swarms the ball, but they’ve added offensive weapons, making Lamar more dangerous. The Chief's offensive is the same unit it’s been in the years past, and this year, the Chiefs’ defense has been remarkable.

👉️The Ravens are possibly the best team in the NFL? Not counting their season finale loss to the Steelers, the Ravens are 8-2 against playoff teams this season and won those games by an average of 2 touchdowns. The Chiefs are just around .500 when facing playoff teams and their entire scoring margin is just +13 points. It’s clear the Ravens are heavy favorites in this one, but the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, and that is worth something in my book.

🏃The Chief’s defense has been pretty good against the pass all year, but they’ve been struggling against the run. Even though the Ravens are at RB 13 on the depth chart, they can still get it done on the ground. The Ravens also show that they’ll let Lamar loose during the playoffs. I think the key for the Ravens is getting the run game moving early to open up the passing game and open up lanes for Lamar to show off his quickness.

❤️‍🩹 TE Mark Andrews is active for the Ravens today. That’s another thing the Chiefs have to plan for. Will Andrews get a lot of action? Who knows. Do the Chiefs need to plan for single and double TE sets now? YUP!

🃏 If the Chiefs want to win, they’ll need it from their wild-card QB. Patrick Mahomes will need to have an elite performance, and we might need an even more impressive performance by coach Andy Reid. The Chiefs' offense looked better the last two weeks, but the Dolphins and Bills were hurting on that side of the ball. This Ravens D is healthy, and they just easily shut down the Texans’ offense last weekend. The Ravens haven’t allowed many explosive plays this year, and I think that suits the Chiefs well. KC hasn’t relied on those big plays, mainly because their dudes haven’t made them. If Isiah Pacheco can run hard on some early downs and stress the Ravens’ defense, some things might open up downfield. I’m glad I’m watching and not blocking today!

💲I’m putting my money on the Chiefs + 4.5 and the over.

NFC Championship

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

📺️ Gametime is 6:30 pm ET on FOX

💰️ The Niners are favored by 7.5 points, and the O/U is 52.5

❤️‍🩹 The most important thing to mention is that Deebo Samuel is active for the 49ers today.

✈️ You might think this game could be all about the air raid today, and you might be right! The Lions have one of the best offenses in the leagues, and while they have a nice run game, their success rate on dropbacks is very high. The Lions rank #1 in explosiveness, but they’ll be facing a 49ers defense that can be formidable when they get pressure on the quarterback. What is the problem for the Lions when it comes to the passing game? The Lions can’t defend it. They’re one of the worst passing defenses in the league, and you better expect Kyle Shanahan to exploit that.

🏃 Let’s talk run game. The Niners aren’t awesome against the run, and their front is built for the pass rush. The Packers’ offense opened up last week, and it was all thanks to the run game being efficient. It’s something that the Lions will try to exploit, but still, the Lions need to run the ball into Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw… so have fun with that. The Niners have relied on their run game to open up play action, and that will be tough against the Lions’ defense that allows the 3rd least average rushing yards per play. I think this is where Deebo being back in the lineup helps. He can spread the offense sideline to sideline, and that will put stress on the Lions front’ front.

💲 I feel like this really a flip flop here but if I had to make a pick I’d try to get the line down -6 and take the 49ers. If the Lions are close, Dan Campbell might try to go for two at some point and make it a six-point game. I’m staying away from the points total, but I’ll likely throw money down on a Sam LaPorta anytime TD.

Enjoy the games and remember….

Don’t let your Mondays ruin your Sundays!

Cheers!

-The Daily Breakroom